President Trump’s war with Iran is a strategy in ruins. The gamble was that overwhelming force would lead to a quick capitulation. Instead, eleven days in, the U.S. is conceding the key strategic objective - control of the Strait of Hormuz - to an adversary that is more unified and vengeful than before.
Quincy Institute analyst Trita Parsi, speaking on Breaking Points, diagnosed the current phase as one of presidential desperation. Trump’s contradictory actions, like bombing an oil terminal but sparing its export infrastructure, and his public pleas for other nations to help reopen the strait, are the actions of a man who knows he’s lost. The proof is in the diplomacy. Major economies like India and France are now negotiating safe passage directly with Tehran, bypassing Washington entirely because Iran decides which ships sail.
The U.S. military position is a fiction of control. Pentagon spokesmen boast of high-volume strikes while admitting the Navy will not escort commercial tankers, framing inaction as deliberate “shaping operations.” On Pod Save the World, Ben Rhodes noted the White House’s messaging is incoherent, swinging from demands for unconditional surrender to declarations of victory within hours, a sign the war began with no defined objective. The only consistent pressure pulling Trump back, according to multiple sources, is Wall Street’s fear of an oil-price-induced recession.
Iran’s response has been to turn the conflict into an existential struggle. The new leadership, installed after the U.S. killed the previous Supreme Leader and members of his family, has vowed vengeance. Political scientist Robert Pape explained on Breaking Points that sustained bombing campaigns often fail to coerce and instead solidify nationalist resistance, a dynamic he calls an ‘escalation trap.’ The U.S. is now trapped in it.
On The Joe Rogan Experience, Konstantin Kisin captured the profound uncertainty, stating that even the White House doesn’t know how this ends. The old rules-based foreign policy order is gone, replaced by impulsive assertions of power with no guardrails. The result is a widening war with no exit, where the only clear lesson for the world, as Colonel Douglas McGregor told Tucker Carlson, is to get nuclear weapons or risk regime change.
Trita Parsi, Breaking Points:
- You're seeing the words of a man who actually has been defeated and who knows it.
- This is the desperation phase of this war at this point.
