Price:

POLITICS

Iran's blockade fractures NATO as allies reject US bases

Saturday, May 9, 2026 · from 4 podcasts, 7 episodes
Breaking PointsThe EconomistJack Mallers ShowTucker Carlson Show
  • Saudi Arabia and Kuwait denied US forces use of airbases and airspace, stalling naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Germany’s chancellor said the US is being humiliated by Iran, prompting Trump to order 5,000 troops withdrawn from Germany.
  • Intelligence assessments show Iran retains 70% of its ballistic missiles and can withstand a blockade for months.

American military primacy in the Middle East is cracking under Iranian pressure. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have formally denied the US military access to their bases and airspace for ‘Project Freedom,’ the planned operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. On Breaking Points, Saagar Enjeti noted that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman specifically refused access to the Prince Sultan Air Base in a call with Trump. Without these local refueling hubs, the US air campaign loses its primary advantage.

Iran achieved this diplomatic rupture by proving it can strike anywhere. High-resolution Chinese satellites allowed precision hits on the US command hub at Al-Udeid air base, and twelve ballistic missiles set the UAE’s critical Fujairah oil terminal ablaze, destroying the primary bypass route for the Strait. On The Tucker Carlson Show, Colonel Lawrence Wilkinson revealed the US and Israel are now bombing Chinese-built railroads in Iran - a desperate attempt to sabotage Beijing’s land bridge to Europe and preserve US naval relevance.

“The regional alliance is fracturing in real-time. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait recently informed the Trump administration that they will not permit the US military to use their bases or airspace for Project Freedom.”

- Saagar Enjeti, Breaking Points

The fracture extends to Europe. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told schoolchildren the US was being “humiliated” and “outplayed” by Iran. According to The Intelligence, Donald Trump retaliated by ordering the withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany and scrapping a missile launcher deployment deal. Correspondent Tom Noddle argues the core damage is to NATO’s credibility, as deterrence relies on dependability, not troops moved in a personal spat.

Meanwhile, the CIA’s internal assessment contradicts Trump’s public optimism. Intelligence suggests Tehran retains 70% of its pre-war ballistic missile inventory and has rebuilt capacity to 120% through Chinese dual-use imports. Drop Site News’s Jeremy Scahill, cited on Breaking Points, reports Iran’s “resistance economy” is structurally prepared for shortages and can withstand a total blockade for at least four months.

“When a personal spat dictates military posture, the alliance loses the credibility required to actually deter Russia.”

- Tom Noddle, The Intelligence from The Economist

The strategic result is a paralyzed coalition. Gulf states are terrified of Iranian retaliation against their infrastructure, European allies are publicly questioning US competence, and the US Navy is forced to operate carriers 3,000 kilometers offshore to avoid missile strikes. The security umbrella that defined the post-Cold War order is folding, and the path to de-escalation is vanishing as factions in Tehran debate sprinting for a nuclear deterrent.

#War#Diplomacy#Middle East#Iran
NATOStrikeUAEGermanyIranIsraelSaudi ArabiaStrait of Hormuz

Source Intelligence

- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

5/8/26: Trump Says Ceasefire Still On After US Iran Bombing, Platner Brutal Ad & MORE • May 8

  • Jeremy Scahill reports Trump's Operation Freedom in the Strait of Hormuz failed to secure civilian merchant vessel passage, and Gulf allies Saudi Arabia and Kuwait initially refused overflight rights, limiting US operational scope.
  • Scahill says Iran considers a US military blockade an act of war and any incursion into its claimed territory as defensive action, with Pakistan acting as the primary mediator to de-escalate recent clashes.
  • Scahill cites a Washington Post report stating US intelligence assesses Iran retains 75% of its pre-war mobile launchers and 70% of its missile stockpiles, contradicting Trump's public claims of decimation.
  • Scahill argues Iran has a sophisticated ballistic missile and drone manufacturing base, has imported dual-use tech from China, and can survive a naval blockade for months due to its 'resistance economy' and agricultural base.
  • Scahill states there is a fierce internal debate in Iran about pursuing nuclear weapons, referencing North Korea's survival, making front-end concessions on enrichment a domestic red line for the regime.
  • Scahill notes Iran signed deals for third-country land transit routes and views its future as a central Asian trade hub, reducing reliance on the Strait of Hormuz which it can still asymmetrically control.
  • Scahill claims Israel presented cooked intelligence to the White House and wants long-term economic devastation in Iran, but may accept a short-term deal to continue its wars in Gaza and Lebanon.
  • Emily argues Platner's unscripted, retail politics style contrasts with Collins's established persona, and his focus on abortion and war aims to motivate the Democratic base in a state with purple tendencies.
  • Emily and Saagar debate nuclear proliferation, with Emily noting the technology's short history makes long-term stability uncertain, and Saagar arguing for mutual disarmament over Iran obtaining a deterrent weapon.
Also from this episode: (4)

Elections (2)

  • Krystal notes Graham Platner's first ad attacks Susan Collins for enabling 'the Epstein class' and performative politics while selling out working-class voters, framing her as part of a broken status quo.
  • Krystal points to Susan Collins's visible tremor in her campaign video and a heightened public sensitivity to age and fitness after Biden and Trump, which could disadvantage older incumbents.

Politics (2)

  • Emily contends the Iranian government's meme warfare and social media output effectively trolls the US because it leverages its underdog status against American peacocking, creating a narrative advantage.
  • Emily says the institutional right faces a reckoning as Cold War propaganda pillars collapse, with young conservatives questioning US foreign policy morality, which could poison future support for imperial projects.
#War#Elections#Diplomacy#Middle East

5/7/26: Saudis Turn On Trump Over Project Freedom, Trump Says $8 Gas Is Worth It For Iran War • May 7

  • Saudi Arabia suspended US military access to its bases and airspace, forcing Trump to cancel Project Freedom; Kuwait also refused cooperation.
  • Iran’s strategy of horizontal escalation succeeded, as Gulf allies now see hosting US bases as a liability; Saudi and Kuwait watched Iran’s attacks on UAE oil infrastructure with alarm.
  • Kuwait has not exported a barrel of oil in 30 days due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, a crippling economic blow despite its wealth.
  • US military bases across the Gulf have been severely damaged by precision Iranian strikes, forcing personnel relocation to civilian hotels.
  • Leaked details of a US-Iran memorandum propose a bilateral easing of the Strait blockade and a 30-day negotiation window, with enrichment moratoriums lasting 12-15 years.
  • Trump insists Iran must give the US its enriched uranium stockpile, a demand Tehran rejects outright.
  • Iran introduced an email-based permit system for Hormuz trade after news of talks surfaced, signaling intent to retain control regardless of any deal.
  • Israeli strikes in Beirut and ongoing pressure from US hawks like Hugh Hewitt complicate any diplomatic progress with Iran.
  • Trump argues $200/barrel oil, translating to $8-9/gallon gas, would be worth the war's achievements; public polling shows consistent opposition.
  • Secretary Marco Rubio claimed a nuclear-armed Iran could shut the Strait unchallenged, but Saagar notes Iran achieved that without nukes.
  • $920M in crude oil shorts were placed 70 minutes before an Axios report on US-Iran talks, netting roughly $125M as prices fell 12%.
  • DOJ is probing insider oil trades totaling $2.6B linked to four specific war-related announcements between March and April.
Also from this episode: (3)

Energy (3)

  • The US is a net oil exporter, but global market dynamics bid domestic supply away to Asia, raising domestic prices; low-income households are already cutting consumption.
  • Analyst Jeff Curry predicts US oil storage tanks will hit bottom around July 4th, moving from a deficit to a physical shortage.
  • Jet fuel costs have driven domestic roundtrip airfare up to $358, a 20% increase; major airlines also hiked checked bag fees.
#War#Macro#Trade#Middle East

5/5/26: Iran Hits Critical UAE Facility, Prof Pape On Iran Escalation, Trump Courts Fetterman, Voting Rights Act Debate • May 5

  • Iran attacked the UAE's Fujaira oil terminal with twelve ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles, and four drones, hitting a facility that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Robert Pape says the U.S. strategy of Project Freedom is a high-risk gambit to break Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by daring Iran not to shoot back. He argues hitting one U.S. vessel would trigger a major escalation.
  • The Trump administration is downplaying the UAE attack, with General Kane stating Iran's nine attacks on commercial vessels and more than ten on U.S. forces are below the threshold for restarting major combat operations.
  • A trapped Indian ship captain stated his company prohibits transiting the Strait of Hormuz until officially declared safe, illustrating civilian reluctance to join Trump's military project.
  • Sagaar argues Iran views the UAE as an extension of Israel, citing Israeli-provided Iron Dome defenses and IDF soldiers stationed there, making it a closer, weaker target.
  • Robert Pape says pressures driving Trump include global disrespect from Iran and Germany, NATO's disintegration, and the humiliation of a pending meeting with President Xi, pushing him towards risky action.
  • Lindsey Graham advocated for a 'Second Amendment solution' in Iran, suggesting flooding the country with guns to enable an uprising, a model used in Libya and Syria.
  • Project Freedom aims to guide trapped vessels. General Kane stated 1,550 commercial vessels with 22,500 mariners are currently trapped in the Arabian Gulf.
Also from this episode: (5)

Politics (5)

  • Republicans are actively courting John Fetterman to switch parties, complicating Democratic Senate math. Fetterman reportedly spends time in the Republican cloakroom, not with Democrats.
  • Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro allegedly pushed a firefighters union to endorse Republican Stacy Garrity for state treasurer after the Democratic candidate criticized him.
  • A Supreme Court decision curtails the Voting Rights Act provision protecting majority-minority districts. Analysts estimate this could shift roughly seven House seats to the GOP.
  • Krystal argues the decision is a setback for black representation in the South, rooted in ongoing racial discrimination. Sagaar counters that the 'dilution' principle violates equal protection and is a relic, citing recent Democratic gerrymandering in Virginia.
  • Barney Frank, in a CNN interview, argued progressives should prioritize more accepted issues over controversial ones like transgender athletes in women's sports, drawing criticism for his role in crafting Dodd-Frank and subsequent bank lobbying.
#War#Middle East#Elections#Diplomacy

5/4/26: Oil Spikes Amid Hormuz Chaos, US Bases Damaged By Iran, Spirit Airlines Goes Bankrupt • May 4

  • Iranian state media claims it struck a US warship near Jask Island, but US officials deny any Navy ship has been hit.
  • The US changed its rules of engagement to authorize strikes on immediate threats like IRGC fast boats or missile positions in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • An Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) tanker was reportedly struck while transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Trita Parsi notes Iran's economy did not collapse as predicted by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, revealing the blockade's failure.
  • Parsi argues the US Navy kept 3,000 km from Iranian shores to avoid missile strikes, a distance Trump's 'Project Freedom' rhetoric ignores.
  • Iranian proposals for ending the conflict demand US withdrawal from the region, lifted sanctions, asset release, reparations, and a full ceasefire.
  • Parsi says Iran's potential offer of a nuclear fuel 'needs basis' could mean zero enrichment for 5-7 years, aligning with a Trump term.
  • China declared it will no longer comply with US sanctions on Iranian oil, signaling a direct geopolitical challenge.
  • Trita Parsi argues the Iran conflict represents a US strategic defeat worse than Iraq, undermining global military primacy and accelerating multipolarity.
  • CNN reports Iran's acquisition of a Chinese satellite gave them high-resolution imagery, enabling strikes on US bases like Huttar's Ledded Air Base.
  • Trita Parsi predicts Gulf states will diversify security, reduce US bases, and force the US to pay for rebuilding damaged infrastructure.
Also from this episode: (4)

Energy (1)

  • Kuwait has not exported a single barrel of oil for 30 days, a situation unseen in 30 years.

Markets (3)

  • Sagaar notes major airlines targeted Spirit by discounting 20 seats on competing routes weeks before flights, pushing Spirit's profitable routes into the red.
  • Jet fuel price doubling killed Spirit Airlines, with a Boeing 777 fill costing up to $225,000 in Seattle as of May 2.
  • Spirit's shutdown leaves 809,000 seats unfilled across 4,119 domestic flights in the first two weeks of May.
#War#Macro#China#Energy
The Intelligence from The Economist
The Intelligence from The Economist

On the off chancellor: Friedrich Merz, one year in • May 6

  • Merz told schoolchildren the US has no strategy in Iran and is being humiliated; Donald Trump responded by threatening to withdraw 5,000 US troops from Germany.
  • Tom Noddle explains the Pentagon cancelled a 2024 US-German missile launcher deployment deal, a key piece of European deterrence now lost.
  • Noddle argues the core damage from the spat is to NATO's credibility, as dependability and consistency are the foundation of deterrence, not just troops or missiles.
  • Catherine Nixey argues modern US war rhetoric, exemplified by a White House video splicing Gladiator and Transformers with actual strikes, lacks the moral elevation and cultural allusion of past oratory.
  • Nixey contends great wartime oratory, like Lincoln's Gettysburg Address or Churchill's speeches, borrowed cultural allusions to elevate tone and frame conflict as a defense of peace and a way of life.
Also from this episode: (8)

Politics (4)

  • German Chancellor Friedrich Merz took office one year ago as the oldest new chancellor in 75 years, leading a coalition with the Social Democrats.
  • Tom Noddle reports Merz's approval ratings are poor, the government is embroiled in internal squabbles, and the hard-right AfD now leads in opinion polls.
  • Germany's projected economic growth rate for this year was halved by the government, partly due to the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz closure impacting energy prices.
  • A brewing reform of Germany's public pension system, which consumes about a quarter of the federal budget annually, threatens further coalition conflict.

AI & Tech (3)

  • Tom Wainwright says OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon are inserting ads into chatbots due to high operational costs, with OpenAI expecting to burn through $25 billion this year.
  • Wainwright notes ChatGPT shows nearly a third of its ads after the 10th turn in a conversation, focusing on brand-building rather than direct-response clicks.
  • SimilarWeb analysis found users shown ads on ChatGPT had conversations lasting about 20 turns, no different from users not shown ads, suggesting limited initial repellence.

Big Tech (1)

  • OpenAI reportedly targets $2.5 billion in ad revenue this year and $100 billion by 2030, aiming to become a major ad seller but facing challenges in data and targeting sophistication.
#Diplomacy#Middle East#Models#Macro#Media
The Jack Mallers Show
The Jack Mallers Show

Jack Mallers

Hold Onto Your Butts (And Your Bitcoin) • May 5

  • Mallers argues the market is mispricing volatility, ignoring four persistent macro risks: the closed Strait of Hormuz, the Iran conflict, disrupted global supply chains, and unsustainable global debt. He sees no political solution to these problems.
Also from this episode: (13)

BTC Markets (3)

  • Jack Mallers says Bitcoin’s price signal precedes broader market shifts because it is the most free market in the world.
  • Mallers sees a binary market outcome: a crash from the oil shock requiring massive money printing, or a continued rip higher fueled by existing stimulus. He watches Bitcoin's hold above $80,000 for clues.
  • 55% of Americans say their financial situation is worsening, a record high exceeding the COVID and 2008 crisis levels. Mallers attributes this solely to fiat currency debasement.

Energy (3)

  • The Strait of Hormuz handles 20% of global oil supply. Mallers states that everything in modern life is a derivative of energy, making oil shocks inflationary for all goods and services.
  • Brent crude oil futures indicate the market expects prices above $90 per barrel through December 2026, signaling deep supply disruption. An attack on the UAE pushed prices from $110 to $120.
  • US gas prices are up 33% year-to-date, nearing 2022 highs and exceeding 2008 crisis levels. Mallers warns $5 per gallon is imminent.

Macro (4)

  • Mallers claims nominal US retail sales are booming only because spending is concentrated on energy. Gasoline stations account for 15.5% of retail sales, while furniture is only 2.2%.
  • Real consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, is pulling back sharply from its post-pandemic trend. Mallers says this indicates declining purchasing power despite higher dollar spending.
  • The US bond market is weakening as yields rise, reflecting lower demand to lend to the government. Mallers links this to inflation fears and a dire fiscal situation with a $2 trillion annual deficit.
  • Three forms of stealth liquidity are propping up markets: Fed balance sheet expansion via a repurchase program, active efforts to weaken the US dollar, and shifting treasury issuance to the short end to avoid weak long-term demand.

Protocol (2)

  • Mallers argues bond volatility is rising due to the oil shock, recalling that similar volatility in 2025 triggered money printing and Bitcoin's run from $25,000 to $125,000.
  • Mallers critiques crypto exchanges for having high income but low Bitcoin conviction, noting Coinbase holds $11 billion in cash versus $1 billion in Bitcoin.

Markets (1)

  • Mallers condemns prediction markets as gambling dressed as financial innovation, citing a Wall Street Journal analysis that 67% of Polymarket profits go to 0.1% of users.
#Macro#Energy#Fed#BTC Markets#Inflation
The Tucker Carlson Show
The Tucker Carlson Show

Tucker Carlson

Iran Update: Israel’s Newest Bombing Campaign, the Oncoming War With China and How to Avoid It • May 4

  • Colonel Wilkinson argues Israel and the US are bombing a completed Chinese railway linking its Pacific ports to the Persian Gulf via the Caucasus, a strategic route intended to shift maritime commerce overland.
  • Wilkinson states China aims to supplant the dollar, with the renminbi already the transactional and reserve currency for about 40% of the world. Their goal is 60-70%, eliminating SWIFT and US sanction power.
  • Wilkinson asserts US sanctions have killed 38 million people this century. He cites Madeline Albright's defense of sanctions that led to 500,000 child deaths in Iraq.
  • Wilkinson says China’s primary purpose is altruistic: to stop US sanctions which they see as killing men, women, and children globally.
  • Wilkinson claims the Pentagon is exceeding Congress’s 4% cap on low-aptitude recruits (mental category four) by using a special school to 'teach the test,' achieving an 11% intake last cycle.
  • Wilkinson says Israel’s goal in Lebanon is to periodically demolish its economic capacity, bombing its economic structure to set recovery back a decade. He says Israel couldn't conduct these campaigns without US support.
  • Wilkinson states Trump started the war with Iran against most advisors' counsel because Netanyahu persuaded him, possibly influenced by Miriam Adelson's financial support.
  • Wilkinson believes Israel cannot survive long-term as a Jewish state in the Levant, but could endure as a true democracy inclusive of Palestinians, Arabs, Christians, and Jews.
  • Wilkinson argues no past empire ever possessed the technological means to destroy itself until now. He fears human nature will lead the declining American empire to use nuclear weapons to try to save itself.
Also from this episode: (5)

Politics (2)

  • Wilkinson describes a Christian nationalist movement within the military, citing weekly OSW protocol prayer services for generals and admirals. He claims Hegseth seeks to change the military oath to Jesus Christ.
  • Wilkinson believes Charlie Kirk's assassination may be connected to his shifting views on Israel, drawing a parallel to JFK and other US political assassinations.

Culture (1)

  • Wilkinson argues the US is in its fourth 'Great Awakening,' a dangerous period historically linked to events like prohibition and witch trials, which empowered organized crime.

Religion (1)

  • Wilkinson sees a long-term effort by a powerful minority to create an American Catholic Church with its own pope, freeing it from Roman doctrinal control for reasons of pure power.

AI & Tech (1)

  • Wilkinson is deeply worried about AI eliminating human autonomy and potentially leading to conflict between AI-led robots and humanity, a scenario he sees foreshadowed in science fiction.
#War#China#Middle East#Macro#Diplomacy